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PTA market once again breaks through the previous high cost side with strong support

Since July, the operating range of PTA main contract prices has been 5550-6206 yuan/ton, and PTA prices have shown a clear trend. From a rhythm perspective, prices continued to rise in July and showed a significant correction trend in August. After late August, with a significant increase in prices and the willingness of PTA factories to reduce production, PTA prices have continued to rise to around 6000 yuan/ton.

On the 12th, the PTA market once again broke through its previous high. At the same time, PTA futures also experienced a rare market trend on the same day, with the highest trading volume and increased position, and a net inflow of 3.572 billion yuan of funds into the commodity futures market within the day. The cost side support is strong, and the crude oil market is concerned about supply shortages caused by OPEC's reduction in production, causing crude oil prices to rise to a high level within the year. As of September 13th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $88.52 per barrel, while the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $91.88 per barrel.

In the PTA market, the price of auxiliary acetic acid continues to rise. As of September 14th, the average price of acetic acid in the East China region was 4800 yuan/ton, an increase of 18.03% compared to the beginning of the month. Affected by the boost of crude oil and acetic acid prices, as well as the unexpected decrease in PTA unit load, the market supply stage has tightened, and the price volatility is relatively strong. The average spot market price of PTA in East China is 6386 yuan/ton, an increase of 3% compared to the beginning of the month.

According to the latest news released by the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Textiles, in US dollars, the export of textiles and clothing in August decreased by 10.2% year-on-year, a decrease of 8 percentage points compared to the previous month. Among them, the export of textiles and clothing decreased by 11 and 6 percentage points respectively, ending the previous trend of two consecutive months of decline and expansion.

At the same time, the peak season of demand for the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" is approaching, which means that the high start of the polyester industry chain is expected to continue this year. There is support on the demand side of PTA, and it is estimated that the terminal loom start up rate will rebound. At the beginning of September, there was a normal seasonal increase in terminal orders, and the order situation improved, but the increase was not enough. Some terminal operators were also relatively cautious. It is estimated that from September to mid to early October, the operating rate of terminal looms may rebound to over 75%, leading to an increase in demand for polyester filament. Polyester filament may be slightly destocked, which is beneficial for polyester factories to maintain a relatively high operating load.

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